Projection is the radius at which your formula is detectable to someone who is not you — measured in the space between your skin and another person. It is determined by the physics of molecular diffusion in air: which compounds are in the formula, at what concentration, and how fast they are evaporating from your skin into the surrounding environment. It is not the same as loudness and it is not the same as longevity
When aromatic compounds evaporate from skin into the surrounding air, they diffuse outward from the application point in a concentration gradient — highest concentration close to the skin, decreasing concentration with distance. The radius at which the gradient remains above the detection threshold of a human nose is the projection radius. This radius is determined by three variables: the volatility of the formula's top and heart note compounds (more volatile = faster evaporation = more molecules in the air = wider projection radius); the concentration of aromatic material in the formula (higher concentration = more molecules available = wider radius); and ambient airflow (still air allows the gradient to establish across a wider radius; moving air disperses the gradient faster, reducing the effective projection radius but spreading individual molecules across a larger area).

THE INSIGHT
Projection and longevity are related but not the same performance dimension. High projection typically correlates with high-volatility top and heart note compounds, which are also the compounds that depart fastest. A formula with high early projection may have shorter longevity if its fixative system is weak. A formula with low projection may last significantly longer because its base compounds are low-volatility and slow to evaporate. The EDP concentration is the balance point between these two dimensions — enough aromatic material for meaningful projection in the first 2–3 hours, and a base structure that continues to perform on skin for 6–8 hours after the projecting tier has departed. A formula that projects strongly for 30 minutes and then disappears is not performing well. A formula that stays skin-close for 8 hours is performing correctly for its design.
TAKEAWAY

If you want more projection: apply to the neck and exposed skin areas rather than clothing or covered pulse points, apply in a warm ambient environment, and choose formulas with higher top and heart note concentration in the EDP range. If you want less projection — for a professional or formal context — apply to lower-exposure areas such as the chest or inner wrist, apply a single spray rather than two, and choose formulas with a denser, more resinous base structure that stays close to the skin through its dominant phase.